The PGA Tour rumbles into Scottsdale, Arizona this week for the Waste Management Phoenix Open, one of the tour’s best best-attended tournaments of the year.
With 200,000 fans expected to come through the gates, and with the Super Bowl due to kick off on Sunday night, it’s going to be one hell of a party in town.
The golf is no mere sideshow though, with thousands hoping to get a seat on the iconic par-3 16th, as well as follow players such as Justin Thomas, Tony Finau, Xander Schauffele, two-time winner Hideki Matsuyama and defending champion Rickie Fowler, who, after a missed cut last week, comes back to a course he clearly enjoys.
TPC Scottsdale isn’t a difficult course – it was ranked 24th out of 48 tournaments for scoring relative to par last season – but it’s a wildly entertaining layout. Holes 14-18 feature, in order, a 470-yard par 4, a par 5, the iconic 16th, a par 4 reachable off the tee at 317 yards, and the 434-yard closing hole. There are also water hazards throughout this stretch of the course. This is a long way of saying the course’s final stretch is set up for a fantastic finish.
Although you don’t have to be a long hitter to win here, the average driving distance is almost 20 yards further than the PGA Tour’s average due to the course sitting at 1,500 feet above sea level. Therefore, we shouldn’t be worried about those who don’t hit it far, but rather on those who are solid with irons in hand. Par-4 efficiency from 450 to 500 yards will again be a key factor, with seven holes measuring between these distances, as well as putting on Bermuda greens this week. With approach, greens in regulation and putting being important, we should also be focusing some on overall proximity to the hole in order to draw up a shortlist of players who’ll have an easier time earning birdies or better when the opportunity strikes.
This brings precision players like Fowler, Xander Schauffele and Matt Kuchar into the reckoning, although big-hitting Jon Rahm, who has a great record in this event, is a worthy favourite. A win here for the burly Spaniard will most likely see him topple Brooks Koepka – who is playing in Saudi Arabia this week – at the top of the world rankings, but the added pressure might just make him opposable, despite his impressive second place finished at Torrey Pines last week.
With Rahm so short – he’s generally a skinny 6/1 – there are lots of high-priced players that have decent credentials. Tony Finau, who finished sixth at Torrey Pines last week, lives in Scottsdale and ought to find this course to his liking, can be backed at 33-1, while Hideki Matsuyama and Webb Simpson, who both boast impeccable course records, can be supported at 16s. To find out the latest odds and staking plans, visit Melbet overview by Efirbet, where you’ll also find links to the expert reviews and price comparisons.
Another Scottsdale resident worth considering is Scotsman Martin Laird, who has been third, fifth, seventh and ninth here, and having been eighth through 54 holes last year it was only a bad round in foul weather which prevents him from arriving in search of his fourth top-10 finish in succession. Priced at 100-1, the 37-year-old’s definitely worth a small each-way investment, despite his recent form being not much to write home about.
Our final tip goes to another non-American, Branden Grace, who finished second behind Fowler here last year, and comes into the tournament on the crest of wave after a home win at the South African Open. He’s must be good for a top-six finish at 40-1.