In the world of sports betting, it is not uncommon for successful bettors to face restrictions from bookmakers. This article delves into a strategy that proved so effective, that it led to the professional bettor Steve Ashwell being banned from placing bets.
The method is straightforward, mathematically sound, and applicable to any sport. Here, the full strategy is revealed, along with a detailed account statement showcasing the bets that resulted in the ban. You can use this strategy to win big money at golf betting not on Gamstop without the risk of banning.
Understanding the Strategy
The strategy hinges on identifying situations where the odds offered by bookmakers are higher than the true probability of an event occurring. By consistently betting on these positive expected value (EV) opportunities, bettors can secure long-term profits. This method does not require predicting outcomes but rather focusing on the mathematics behind the odds.
Example: Greyhound Racing
One primary focus of this strategy is greyhound racing. An example from 12th May illustrates the approach:
- Event: 11:46 AM race at Harlow
- Odds on Betfair Exchange: 4.0 (true probability of 25%)
- Odds on Bookmaker: 5.0 (implied probability of 20%)
In this scenario, the odds offered by the bookmaker are higher than the true probability. By placing a bet on the higher odds, the bettor stands to make a profit over time.
Key Elements of the Strategy
- Finding Positive EV Bets: Look for instances where the bookmaker’s odds are higher than the true probability of the event.
- Bet Consistently: Regularly placing these bets increases the likelihood of long-term success.
- Market Timing: The closer to the event’s start, the more accurate the market’s odds, making it easier to find positive EV bets.
Account Statement Breakdown
The following is a summary of the account statement that led to the ban:
| Description | Amount |
| Total Deposits | £5,000 |
| Total Withdrawals | £5,667.57 |
| Net Profit | £667.57 |
| Average Stake | £5 – £100 |
| Main Betting Focus | Greyhound Racing |
The account showed a profit of £667.57 with stakes ranging from £5 to £100. The majority of bets were placed on greyhound racing, debunking the myth that this sport is only for less serious bettors.
The Ban and Its Implications
The account was eventually restricted, preventing further bets. This restriction stemmed from a note on the account indicating “sharp exchange”, suggesting the bettor was exploiting advantageous odds. Despite multiple attempts to understand the ban, the bookmaker’s response was limited to “Trader’s decision”, implying they no longer wanted the bettor’s business.
Why Bookmakers Ban Winning Bettors
Bookmakers often restrict or ban accounts that consistently win because it limits their variance and potential losses. They can control their risk and ensure profitability by capping stakes or banning accounts.
Applying the Strategy to Other Sports
While greyhound racing was the focus in this example, the strategy is versatile and can be applied to other sports. Here’s how:
Football Betting Example
- Event: A football match where the bookmaker offers odds of 3.0 on a team winning.
- True Probability: Betfair Exchange indicates the true odds should be 2.5.
- Action: Bet on the team with the higher odds from the bookmaker.
By following this method, bettors can find value in various sports, ensuring long-term profitability.
Conclusion
This strategy demonstrates that consistent, mathematically driven betting can yield significant profits, often leading to restrictions from bookmakers. By focusing on positive EV bets and understanding market dynamics, bettors can improve their chances of success. However, they must also be prepared for account restrictions as bookmakers aim to protect their interests.
For those interested in exploring this method further, a 52-page account statement is available for review, showcasing all the bets that led to the ban. Steve encourages bettors to apply this strategy across different sports, ensuring they take advantage of favourable odds when they appear.
FAQ
What is the core principle of the betting strategy discussed?
The core principle of the strategy is to identify and bet on situations where the bookmaker’s odds are higher than the true probability of the event occurring. This is known as a positive expected value (EV) bet.
Can this strategy be used in sports other than greyhound racing?
Yes, this strategy can be applied to any sport. The key is to find instances where the odds offered by the bookmaker are higher than the true probability, which can occur in various sports, including football, horse racing, and others.
Why did the bookmaker ban the account?
The bookmaker banned the account because it consistently won using the positive EV betting strategy. Bookmakers often restrict or ban accounts that pose a risk to their profitability by consistently exploiting advantageous odds.
How can I identify positive EV bets?
Positive EV bets can be identified by comparing the odds offered by the bookmaker with the true probability of the event. Betting exchanges like Betfair can be used as a reference for true odds since they reflect the collective view of many participants.
What are the typical stakes used in this strategy?
In the discussed account, stakes ranged from £5 to £100. The strategy does not rely on the size of the stake but rather on consistently betting on positive EV opportunities.
Is it legal to use this betting strategy?
Yes, using a mathematically sound betting strategy is legal. However, bookmakers have the right to restrict or ban accounts that they believe are not profitable for them. It is important to be aware of each bookmaker’s terms and conditions.