Nick Bayly checks out the contenders for this year’s Masters Tournament, and finds himself weighing up the merits of some in-form favourites competing on the PGA Tour against a handful of potentially ring-rusty, but talented LIV Golf campaigners in the battle for green jacket glory
While the Masters is always one, if not the most eagerly anticipated tournaments of the year, coming as it does, after eight Major-free months, this year’s renewal has more than a certain extra frisson to it.
The arrival of LIV Golf, the well-publicised and equally well-funded Saudi-backed tour, in the spring of last year, set the professional tours on a collision course that has seen long-standing friendships torn apart and bitter rivalries created. The schism that now exists between those that stayed ‘loyal’ to the PGA Tour and the DP World Tour, and those 50-plus players that chose to follow Greg Norman into battle, seems wider than ever, and with many LIV golfers having seen their world rankings drop faster than Chelsea down the Premier League table in recent months, this may well be the last time we see some of them teeing it up at the Masters, or any others of the major championships, for some time to come.
While the Masters Tournament committee issued a statement earlier this year outlining that they were in no mind to rescind invitations to LIV golfers for this year’s renewal, who knows what the situation will be next year. Will future LIV tournaments qualify for world ranking points? Will the organiser of the majors be forced to fall in line with the established tours and ban LIV golfers from competing? Will LIV Golf even exist next year? Will the PGA Tour be forced to back down in the face of anti-trust litigation? So many questions, with so few answers, but it all adds up to an intriguing backstory that continues to bubble beneath the surface at pro tournaments around the world.
What isn’t in doubt is that the Masters, for now, remains professional golf’s biggest draw outside of the Ryder Cup, and all eyes will be on Augusta on April 6 when the first round gets under way, signalling the beginning of four days of glorious golfing action at one of the most visual stunning courses in the world.
This year, more than in past years, we have a tantalising mix of players arriving at Augusta in superb form. The battle for world no.1 status looks set to be a leading theme throughout the 2023 season, and the battle will come into even sharper focus when Rory McIlroy, Scottie Scheffler and Jon Rahm tee it up at Augusta.
Scheffler, the current no.1 and defending Masters champion, will feel like he may currently have the upper hand, but both McIlroy and Rahm come in the tournament in good form, with the Spaniard having won four of his previous nine tournaments, and the Northern Irishman winning in Dubai and seemingly brimming with confidence.
As PGA Tour loyalists, that high quality trio will be fighting out of the red, white and blue corner alongside the likes of Jordan Spieth, Justin Thomas, Colin Morikawa and, of course, the limping Tiger Woods, while over in the black-and-white corner – go with it, they’re the colours of the LIV Golf logo – we have former Masters champions Dustin Johnson, Patrick Reed, Phil Mickelson and Charl Schwartzel ready to rumble for LIV alongside reigning Open Champion Cameron Smith, who, lest we forget, finished third at last year’s Masters, and four-time major champion Brooks Koepka, who is fresh off a win at last week’s LIV Golf event in Orlando.
With the course having changed little, barring the much-talked about extension to the 13th hole, which will now measure 545 yards off the back tee – some 35 yards longer than last year – Augusta’s twists and turns still very much play into the hands of the longer hitter.
When it comes to picking a winner, it often pays to stick with a combination of experience and current form. While that sounds obvious, the Masters is a tournament that rewards experience perhaps more than any other, with Augusta only being the only major venue that never changes location, thus giving regular players the chance to unlock the key to its intricacies and subtle borrows after repeated play. On that basis it will come as no surprise that there have been just three first-time winners since the Masters began in 1934, with Fuzzy Zoeller’s triumph way back in 1979 being the most recent triumph by a debutant. So scratch through any player making their first trip up Magnolia Drive and concentrate on those with course form and a hot putter.
Taking all that into account, here is a quick overview of the main contenders for the season first major….
RORY MCILROY 7-1
Still waiting to complete the career major grand slam some nine years after winning the third of the quartet in 2014, Rory McIlroy must be starting to wonder if he will ever get that feeling of a green jacket being slipped over his shoulders. After finishing second to Scottie Scheffler last year, and having bagged seven top-10 finishes in the last 10 years, Rory certainly knows how to knock it around Augusta, but his history of finding a couple of players too good must be creating more of a mental block than anything that is lacking in his physical game, which is as good, if not better, than it has ever been. Does he represent good value at 7-1? Probably not, but then he hasn’t been good value to win a major for over a decade, although every winner must seem like good value when they actually win.
SCOTTIE SCHEFFLER 6-1
The reigning Masters champion is bidding, like every other player who has won at Augusta in the last 20 years, to become the first player to win back-to-back green jackets since Tiger Woods in 2001 and 2002. The fact that consecutive Masters have also only been won by Nick Faldo (1989-90) and Jack Nicklaus (1965-66), would suggest that Scheffler is going to have his work cut out to follow in such illustrious footsteps, but the dominant nature of his win 12 months ago, and the fact that he seems to be starting off 2023 in the kind of form he finished 2022, points to the 24-year-old making a bold bid for a repeat.
JON RAHM 8-1
With two wins already in the bank this year, and five victories in his last 11 events, Rahm is clearly the hottest golfer on the planet at this moment in time, although with the way world rankings work right now that isn’t quite reflected in his third-placed spot. Still, rankings mean nothing on the golf course, and Rahm is in almost total control of his golf ball over the last four or five months. Having bagged top-10 finishes at Augusta every year between 2018-21, last year’s disappointing 27th will rankle with Rahm, with a third round 77 being especially damaging. However, with a scoring average of 70.3 from his previous 20 rounds at Augusta, points to a player that is comfortable around the Georgia course’s twists and turns, that will make more determined than ever to add a second Major to the 2020 US Open title.
CAMERON SMITH 20-1
A lot of people will be writing off the 2022 Open Championship winner’s chances of adding to his major tally at Augusta following his switch to LIV Golf last year, right after his triumph at St Andrews, but to do so would be foolish. Belying his laidback beach boy looks, Smith is a serious competitor and seriously good at golf, and he also has some course form around here, having finished second in 2020, 10th in 2021 and third behind Scheffler last year. With three LIV golf events scheduled to take place before the Masters, Smith will have just nine rounds of ‘competitive’ golf under his belt, but he should be fresh and ready to go.
DUSTIN JOHNSON 22-1
Johnson may have gone to the dark side as far as PGA Tour fans are concerned, following his flip to LIV Golf in May, but the winner of the 2020 Masters still remains a force to be reckoned with judged on his performances over 54 holes with no cut last year. He won the individual prize and shared the team prize on the Saudi-back circuit and banked over $35m from just eight tournaments. Although his world ranking has now slipped outside the world’s top 50, that bares no relation to his ability as a golfer, which remains largely undiminished, with a sixth-place finish at last year’s Open Championship being the last four-round form we have to go on. In addition to his win in 2020, Johnson finished sixth in 2014 and fourth in 2016, and with his ridiculous length off the tee and solid wedge play, it’s hard to see South Carolina’s smoothest swinger not featuring on Sunday at what will be his 13th appearance. Lucky for some? Only time will tell whether this particular DJ is capable of laying down some more serious tracks at the Masters.
PATRICK REED 60-1
Like Smith and Johnson, Reed will come into the season’s first major with limited match practice, but his impressive showing at the Dubai Desert Classic, where he literally went to toe to toe with Rory McIlroy before going down by a single shot, shows that the 2018 Masters champion has lost none of his competitive edge since switching to LIV Golf. Long painted as golf’s bad boy, he’s seemingly taken his reputation even lower by getting his lawyers to hand deliver a subpoena to McIlroy’s Florida home on Christmas Eve, but pro golf’s biggest villain boasts a decent record around Augusta since his win five years ago – with top-10 finishes in 2020 and 2021, before slipping back to 35th last year. Likely to be as friendless in the betting market as he is with PGA Tour fans, he can be backed at long odds for a top-6 finish and he’s hard to rule out from going even higher.
The Masters will air on Sky Sports Golf from April 6-9. For the full schedule of live coverage, visit skysports.com. For all the latest Masters odds, visit www.mcbookie.com.